Could SpaceX be worth $12 trillion one day? Citi says Starship gets it a step closer.
The recent Starship launch helps SpaceX with a number of priorities that could help its stock reach $900 over the long run, an analyst says.
SOURCE: MarketWatch ↗
What This Means
This is commentary from a Citi analyst offering a valuation scenario for SpaceX based on Starship's progress. The analyst is making a forward-looking case about how SpaceX's reusable rocket technology could unlock new revenue streams and market opportunities. The mechanism involves Starship enabling lower-cost access to space, potentially opening markets in satellite deployment, space tourism, lunar/Mars missions, and orbital infrastructure that could justify an extremely high enterprise value.
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Sources — 1 tier
Every claim below links directly to the original reporting it was drawn from. Penblock synthesizes and cross-references these sources — it doesn't originate the reporting.
- MarketWatchSep 29, 2026Could SpaceX be worth $12 trillion one day? Citi says Starship gets it a step closer. ↗
How This Could Play Out — recorded when first flagged, not updated
Resolve
UNLIKELYIf SpaceX achieves sustained orbital refueling, rapid reusability, and demonstrable progress toward Mars/lunar infrastructure, the market would likely reassess the company's long-term addressable market and risk profile, potentially supporting higher valuations in aerospace, satellite, and defense-adjacent equities.
Left Unattended
LIKELYStarship development continues incrementally without major breakthroughs or setbacks; analyst commentary remains speculative and disconnected from near-term earnings or revenue catalysts, leaving SpaceX valuation anchored to current operational metrics and near-term commercial contracts rather than transformative scenarios.
Escalate
POSSIBLERepeated Starship failures, regulatory delays, or evidence that orbital refueling or rapid reusability is technically or economically unviable would undermine the bull case, putting downward pressure on SpaceX's private valuation and potentially dampening investor appetite for high-risk aerospace and space-services ventures.
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Confidence History
- MEDIUM CONFIDENCESep 29, 2026 at 5:04 PM
Single-tier claim only (mainstream) -- no independent corroboration yet