How Penblock works

Confidence

Confidence measures how many independent kinds of source report the event, not how sure any one source sounds.

• HIGH CONFIDENCE

  Two or more independent source types report it, or it comes from an official financial disclosure.

• MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

  Reported by one type of source so far, with no independent corroboration yet.

• LOW CONFIDENCE

  Weakly supported: signals conflict, or the only support is indirect.

Coverage

Coverage shows who is talking about an event. The gaps are often the interesting part: a blind spot is something independent sources see before the mainstream does.

• CROSS-CONFIRMED

  Covered by mainstream outlets and independently backed by on-the-ground or disclosure sources.

• BLIND SPOT

  Reported by independent or on-the-ground sources, but not (yet) picked up by mainstream outlets.

• MAINSTREAM ONLY

  Covered by mainstream outlets, with no independent on-the-ground confirmation tracked yet.

• CONTEXT ONLY

  Only background analysis so far, from neither mainstream nor on-the-ground sources.

Source types

• MAINSTREAM

  Major news outlets such as Reuters, BBC, NYT, WSJ, CNBC, Al Jazeera.

• ON-THE-GROUND

  Independent analysts, specialist trackers, and people close to the situation, outside mainstream media.

• FILING

  Official disclosures such as congressional stock-trade filings. Primary documents, not reporting.

• NARRATIVE

  Widely-followed commentators and outlets that shape the public story.

• ANALYSIS

  Think tanks and background analysis. Adds context, not confirmation.

• PROXY

  Indirect real-world signals (prices, traffic, activity data) that would move if the event were real.

Acute events

• ACUTE ↓ACUTE ↑

  A sudden, discrete shock with a direct market mechanism (new sanctions, an attack on infrastructure, a surprise policy move), not commentary. Arrow shows the likely lean on risk sentiment: ↓ risk-off, ↑ risk-on.