JPMorgan develops index to gauge Trump's likelihood of pursuing trade agreements

A trade deal announcement would likely ease uncertainty in trade-sensitive sectors (industrials, agriculture, semiconductors) and could support risk-on positioning, though the magnitude would depend on the deal's terms and scope.

If trade negotiations stall or the index becomes a novelty without actionable policy signal, markets would probably treat it as noise and continue pricing in existing tariff/trade risk premiums without material repricing.

Should Trump pursue more aggressive tariffs or trade actions despite the index signal, volatility would likely spike in equities and currencies tied to trade flows, with particular pressure on multinational exporters and emerging markets.