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Mortgages

What's Happening in Mortgages

Treasury yields have climbed to 5% on the back of persistent inflation surprises and Fed officials signaling openness to further rate increases, directly raising mortgage borrowing costs across the economy. The resilient jobs market removes pressure on the Fed to pause tightening, while some officials including Bessent have indicated that additional rate hikes remain possible if inflation stays elevated, anchoring market expectations for higher-for-longer rates. Equity valuations have compressed as the higher discount rate applied to future earnings makes bonds more attractive relative to stocks, and this shift in financial conditions flows directly into mortgage pricing, which tracks Treasury yields and Fed policy expectations. Meanwhile, UK housing construction faces headwinds from material supply constraints and cost pressures, while tax policy debates in Britain signal that structural barriers to housing delivery remain unresolved, creating divergent pressures on residential real estate markets on either side of the Atlantic.

Mortgage lending, origination, and mortgage-backed securities tied to residential and commercial real estate.

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