Iraq celebrates Sovereignty Day as US troops complete withdrawal

A stable post-withdrawal Iraq with functioning institutions and secure oil production would likely ease regional risk premiums, though the underlying geopolitical realignment would persist as a structural shift rather than a discrete market event.

Continued low-level instability without major escalation or breakthrough would leave energy markets pricing in a modest Iraq-specific risk premium while global supply concerns remain anchored to broader Middle East tensions rather than this withdrawal alone.

A deterioration in Iraqi security, sectarian conflict, or Iranian consolidation of influence could create upward pressure on oil price expectations and widen risk spreads for regional assets, though actual supply disruption would depend on whether production infrastructure itself comes under threat.