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Oil & Gas

What's Happening in Oil & Gas

Geopolitical tension in the Middle East is tightening crude supply and lifting prices, while simultaneously pushing up wholesale gas costs that utilities pass to consumers through higher bills. Island Energy raised rates 5% in December citing regional conflict constraining output; heating oil prices surged 70% on Iran supply concerns; and crude rallied as the Iran-U.S. standoff deepened and regional tensions persisted. Natural gas futures reversed intraday strength to settle lower, suggesting demand or supply expectations shifted during trading, though the specific driver remains unclear. Offsetting these supply pressures, ExxonMobil's preliminary agreement to resume Venezuelan oil operations after a 20-year absence signals potential expansion of crude capacity if execution proceeds, while easing geopolitical risk premiums in Asian equities as Iran peace prospects improved. On the demand side, UK diesel prices have not fallen in line with wholesale oil declines, indicating retailers are capturing margin rather than passing savings to consumers, while Chilean truckers' fuel-cost blockades are raising transport costs and compressing operator margins. Domestically, Labour backbenchers are resisting approval of the Rosebank oilfield and opposing dilution of 2030 EV mandates, signaling internal division over fossil fuel expansion; approval would extend North Sea production capacity, while weakening EV targets would preserve conventional fuel demand longer. The net effect is upward pressure on energy costs feeding into inflation expectations and household budgets, with supply tightness in the Middle East offset partially by potential Venezuelan production and constrained by policy resistance to UK domestic oil expansion.

Exploration, production, refining, and distribution of crude oil and natural gas.

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