Citi analyst sees Starship progress boosting SpaceX's long-term valuation potential

If SpaceX achieves sustained orbital refueling, rapid reusability, and demonstrable progress toward Mars/lunar infrastructure, the market would likely reassess the company's long-term addressable market and risk profile, potentially supporting higher valuations in aerospace, satellite, and defense-adjacent equities.

Starship development continues incrementally without major breakthroughs or setbacks; analyst commentary remains speculative and disconnected from near-term earnings or revenue catalysts, leaving SpaceX valuation anchored to current operational metrics and near-term commercial contracts rather than transformative scenarios.

Repeated Starship failures, regulatory delays, or evidence that orbital refueling or rapid reusability is technically or economically unviable would undermine the bull case, putting downward pressure on SpaceX's private valuation and potentially dampening investor appetite for high-risk aerospace and space-services ventures.