Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac single-family delinquencies rise in September
Delinquency rates climbed for single-family mortgages at the two mortgage giants, while multifamily delinquencies stayed elevated.
SOURCE: Calculated Risk ↗
What This Means
Delinquency rates at the two largest U.S. mortgage guarantors ticked higher last month, signaling stress in household debt service. Rising delinquencies feed into mortgage credit risk, affecting bond valuations and lender loss provisions, and can presage broader housing demand weakness if the trend persists.
Markets since first report
Daily closes from the day before this was first reported to the latest close. Prices move for many reasons; shown for context, not as cause and effect.
Sources (1)
Every claim below links directly to the original reporting it was drawn from. Penblock synthesizes and cross-references these sources — it doesn't originate the reporting.
- Calculated RiskNov 8, 2026Read the original report at Calculated Risk ↗
How This Could Play Out
First assessed Nov 8
Resolved
UNLIKELYMortgage-backed securities rally as delinquency trend reverses and credit losses stabilize, reducing lender provisions.
Status quo
POSSIBLEAgency MBS spreads widen modestly as delinquencies plateau at elevated levels, pricing in chronic but non-accelerating credit stress.
Worsens
LIKELYAgency MBS underperform as delinquencies climb further, forcing higher loss reserves at servicers and triggering downgrades of mortgage credit risk.
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- Ackman sees midterm elections as catalyst for mortgage giants' independenceNov 3
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