Former DR Congo president takes helm of rebel group coalition

A negotiated settlement or power-sharing arrangement that neutralizes Kabila's coalition would likely ease supply-chain risk premiums on DRC minerals and reduce near-term volatility in cobalt and copper futures.

If the coalition remains a political force without triggering major military escalation or mining disruptions, markets would plausibly treat this as a chronic governance risk rather than an acute shock, keeping DRC-linked commodity spreads elevated but not triggering panic liquidation.

Armed conflict between Kabila's coalition and government forces that disrupts mining operations or supply routes would likely exert upward pressure on cobalt and copper prices while depressing broader emerging-market risk appetite and DRC-exposed equities.