Three people die in Israeli airstrike targeting tent in Khan Younis

A formal ceasefire agreement or sustained de-escalation framework would likely ease risk premiums in regional equities and reduce volatility in oil futures, though humanitarian access improvements would take weeks to materialize in aid-dependent asset flows.

Continued tactical strikes without major escalation or diplomatic breakthrough would plausibly sustain the current elevated volatility regime in Middle East-exposed sectors and energy markets, with pricing already reflecting baseline conflict risk.

A widening of strikes, retaliatory attacks, or humanitarian crisis declarations could put upward pressure on oil volatility and safe-haven flows into defensive assets, while disrupting aid logistics and triggering broader regional instability concerns.