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Geopolitical Risk & Trade

What's Happening in Geopolitical Risk & Trade

China is consolidating control over critical mineral supply chains across Africa and South America, shifting pricing power and geopolitical leverage toward Beijing while raising input costs for battery, semiconductor, and renewable energy manufacturers globally. Simultaneously, the US and its allies are fragmenting semiconductor and energy supply chains through state-backed industrial policy—the US is taking direct ownership stakes in chip plants, OpenAI is diversifying procurement from South Korean suppliers, and India is expanding energy partnerships with Washington—all aimed at reducing dependence on Chinese supply and hedging against export restrictions. Trade tensions between the US and Canada are intensifying as tariff policy becomes a political tool tied to domestic elections rather than fixed strategy; Trump is selectively easing tariffs to support vulnerable Republicans while threatening 50% duties on automotive imports, which would devastate integrated North American manufacturing networks and raise vehicle costs for consumers. These three currents—Chinese resource consolidation, Western supply chain fragmentation through state intervention, and tariff-driven trade disruption—are reshaping global input costs, manufacturing location decisions, and capital flows, with automakers, semiconductor firms, and cross-border manufacturers facing margin compression from tariffs, higher energy and material costs, and uncertainty over which supply chains will remain viable.

Themes covering international relations, trade tensions, and geopolitical dynamics between major economies.

98 events across this theme and its sub-themes

Trade & TariffsSanctions & Trade RestrictionsUS-China Tech CompetitionSupply Chain ResilienceRegional SecurityGeopolitical Risk PremiumUS-Japan RelationsCross-Border Supply Chains