US Manufacturing & Industrial Policy

What's Happening in US Manufacturing & Industrial Policy

US manufacturing policy is fragmenting into competing strategies for securing critical supply chains, with government and private actors pursuing divergent paths that undermine each other's effectiveness. OpenAI's unannounced visit to Samsung and SK Group to lock in chip supply directly contradicts the stated goal of reducing dependence on foreign semiconductor sources; the company is hedging against US domestic capacity constraints by deepening ties to South Korean producers rather than waiting for Intel's delayed Ohio fab or betting on TSMC's second American factory. Meanwhile, the US government is taking direct ownership stakes in chip plants and pushing TSMC and AMD to expand US production, but these efforts face structural headwinds: Intel's Ohio facility remains years behind schedule due to labor shortages and cost overruns, while AMD is committing capital to Asian expansion to resolve supply bottlenecks rather than investing in domestic capacity. The Trump administration is leveraging Alaska LNG development as a bargaining chip with South Korea for investment and energy partnerships, signaling a shift toward using resource access as negotiating leverage, but Seoul's hesitation reflects commercial viability concerns that override strategic alignment. If underlying capacity constraints and cost structures remain unresolved, companies will continue pursuing Asian production over domestic alternatives, creating a gap between policy intent and market incentives that widens as policymakers and firms race to secure semiconductor and energy supply chains through state ownership, foreign partnerships, and infrastructure deals.