Dollar Weakness & Currency Markets
Today in Dollar Weakness & Currency Markets· Nov 12
State Street strategists assessed that the yen weakens to 160 per dollar if the Federal Reserve tightens policy, extending the interest rate differential that has driven carry-trade positioning and capital outflows from Japan. A move to that level increases import costs for Japanese companies and reduces the relative appeal of yen-denominated assets against higher-yielding alternatives abroad. The assessment reflects how Fed policy direction shapes currency valuations through shifts in cross-border capital allocation rather than through any announced change in U.S. monetary stance.
Technical analysis and market dynamics of US dollar weakness, currency valuations, and implications for Treasury markets and global finance.
8 events tracked
What the Market Says
- Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting? ↗
- 100%Above 3.75%
- 100%Above 3.50%
- 100%Above 3.00%
Earliest close Dec 9, 2026
- Fed funds rate at end of 2027 ↗
- 97%Above 1.00%
- 94%Above 2.50%
- 92%Above 2.75%
Earliest close Jan 1, 2028
Prices from Kalshi prediction markets: the market-implied chance of each outcome, set by traders, not a forecast or advice from Penblock. Penblock is not affiliated with Kalshi.
- Single sourceabout 11 hours ago
State Street: Yen could weaken to 160 per dollar if Fed tightens
WSJ says yen weakening to 160 per dollar is plausible given current conditions.
The Wall Street Journal
- Single source1 day ago
Dollar strengthens as hot U.S. inflation data revives rate-hike bets
U.S. CPI data strengthens the dollar, weakening Asian currencies.
The Wall Street Journal
- Single source2 days ago
Dollar index drops as risk appetite and energy prices offset rising yields
Improved risk appetite pressures the dollar as Treasury yields await CPI data for directional cues.
The Wall Street Journal
- Single source7 days ago
Dollar index climbs to 97.52 on two-day rally
The WSJ Dollar Index gained 0.5% and extended gains for a second consecutive trading session.
The Wall Street Journal
- Single source8 days ago
Pound hits decade high against currency basket
Sterling hits highest level since Brexit referendum, signaling renewed confidence in UK assets.
BBC News
- Single sourceMARKET SHOCK ↓15 days ago
New Zealand dollar plunges as central bank skips expected rate increase
New Zealand's central bank held rates steady, defying market expectations for a hike, sending the NZD lower.
CNBC
- Single source28 days ago
India's currency expected to depreciate despite central bank intervention
The rupee has rebounded to 95 per dollar from 96.79 after RBI action, though analysts predict further weakening ahead.
CNBC
- Single sourceabout 2 months ago
Dollar poised for technical death cross pattern favoring Trump administration
MarketWatch analysis suggests a technical death cross pattern may form in the dollar, which Trump administration officials would welcome.
MarketWatch