Inflation & Monetary Policy
Macroeconomic trends in inflation dynamics, central bank policy responses, and broader risks to price stability across major economies.
19 events across this topic and its sub-topics
Today in Inflation & Monetary Policy· Oct 22
Jobless claims fell to 194,000, matching decades-low levels and signaling a labor market that remains too tight to ease wage and inflation pressures. Employers are not cutting headcount, which keeps workers scarce and pay rising. The persistence of this dynamic constrains the Federal Reserve's ability to cut rates further, as inflation risks remain embedded in labor costs. Bond yields rise as investors price in a longer period of elevated rates.
What the Market Says
- Fed decision in Oct 2026? ↗
- 94%Fed maintains rate
- 6%Hike 25bps
- 1%Hike >25bps
Earliest close Oct 28, 2026
- Number of rate cuts in 2026? ↗
- 94%Exactly 0 cuts
- 2%Exactly 1 cut
- 1%Exactly 2 cuts
Earliest close Jan 1, 2027
- Fed decision in Dec 2026? ↗
- 67%Hike 25bps
- 27%Fed maintains rate
- 5%Hike >25bps
Earliest close Dec 9, 2026
Prices from Kalshi prediction markets: the market-implied chance of each outcome, set by traders, not a forecast or advice from Penblock. Penblock is not affiliated with Kalshi.
- Single sourceabout 8 hours ago
Jobless claims fall to 194,000, matching decades-low levels
U.S. jobless claims remain near six-decade lows, extending a period of minimal layoffs.
CNBC
- Single source1 day ago
UK inflation jumps to 3.5% as September deficit widens to £24.5bn
Consumer price growth accelerated beyond expectations while government borrowing exceeded forecasts, pressuring the finance minister ahead of budget announcements.
The Guardian
- Single source6 days ago
Global economy shows unexpected resilience despite oil and geopolitical pressures
Guardian opinion piece questions how long the global economy can sustain growth amid structural pressures and risks.
The Guardian
- Single source7 days ago
Producer prices rose 6.3% year-over-year in September, exceeding forecasts
U.S. wholesale prices rose 6.3% year-over-year in September, the largest annual increase since 2022.
CNBC
- Single source8 days ago
Chicago Fed leader discusses latest inflation figures with NPR
Chicago Federal Reserve President discusses inflation data in public Q&A session.
NPR
SPONSORED
- Single source9 days ago
Severe El Niño complicates inflation outlook for Philippine monetary authorities
Philippines' central bank models extreme weather scenarios alongside energy price pressures as consumer price growth hits its highest level in three years.
CNBC
- Single source9 days ago
Investors can protect portfolios from inflation through multiple asset classes
Beyond Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, commodities and infrastructure funds offer alternative hedging strategies against rising prices.
CNBC
- Single source9 days ago
September consumer prices anticipated to climb at faster pace
Inflation data expected to show accelerating price increases, potentially pressuring bonds and equities.
CNBC
- Single source9 days ago
Sticky pricing mechanisms connect frozen desserts to economics Nobel award
Nobel Prize in economics awarded; ice cream connection suggests behavioral economics or market mechanism focus.
NPR
- Single source10 days ago
Prediction markets suggest 2026 inflation peak with persistent elevated levels
Prediction markets signal inflation peaked in 2026 but will persist at elevated levels.
CNBC
SPONSORED
- Single source10 days ago
Hall and Woodford win Nobel economics prize for stabilization models
Two American economists received the Nobel Prize for developing frameworks that enable policymakers to mitigate economic crises and prevent severe downturns.
The Guardian
- Single source10 days ago
Indian consumer prices surge past forecasts during September
India's retail inflation climbed to 5.54% last month, exceeding expectations and marking an eleventh consecutive monthly gain that may prompt additional rate increases.
CNBC
- Reported by 2 outlets15 days ago
Federal Reserve officials expressed concern about remaining inflation challenges
Federal Reserve officials indicated in meeting minutes that additional work remains to control inflation.
The New York Times · CNBC
- Single source15 days ago
Consumer inflation expectations climb to peak not seen in over a year
The Federal Reserve's consumer survey showed median 12-month inflation projections reached 3.9%, marking the strongest reading since mid-2023.
CNBC
- Single sourceMARKET SHOCK ↓15 days ago
India raises benchmark rate for first time since 2023 amid inflation pressures
India's central bank raises rates for first time since 2023, signaling inflation pressure.
BBC News
SPONSORED
- Single source16 days ago
Reserve Bank of India raises borrowing costs amid growing price pressures
India's monetary authority lifted its key rate for the first time this year as inflation concerns mount, with major banks predicting another increase in December.
CNBC
- Single source20 days ago
Wage declines and energy costs fuel stagflation comparisons to 1970s
Deteriorating compensation, elevated fuel costs, and rising prices are creating economic parallels to the stagflation period of the 1970s.
MarketWatch
- Single sourceNOT IN MAINSTREAM YET25 days ago
Bridgewater and GIC warn of significant hurdles for institutional money managers
Bridgewater Associates and GIC outline major investment challenges ahead for institutional investors.
Bridgewater Associates
- Single sourceNOT IN MAINSTREAM YET25 days ago
Bridgewater Associates cautions that inflation dangers are rising sharply
Bridgewater Associates warns of elevated inflation risks entering a new era.
Bridgewater Associates