US Politics & Elections

US campaigns, voters, congressional oversight and trading by officials.

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Today in US Politics & Elections· Nov 2

Election day uncertainty lifts as markets price in clarity regardless of outcome, with Morgan Stanley strategists noting that resolution itself removes a volatility drag that has constrained investor positioning. South Carolina Republicans split over Trump's Senate endorsement, with conservative backers organizing a write-in campaign against his chosen candidate, exposing internal party fractures over candidate selection and Trump's sway. Trump campaigns against Omar and El-Sayed in final events while El-Sayed gains endorsements from boxing legend Muhammad Ali's descendants; Democrats report record early voting turnout as Trump's team prepares post-election legal challenges and an Alaska case against Democrats was dismissed.

What the Market Says

2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power? ↗
- 71%Democrats sweep
- 27%D-House, R-Senate
- 7%Republicans sweep
Earliest close Feb 1, 2027
2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? ↗
- 20%J.D. Vance
- 14%Gavin Newsom
- 12%Jon Ossoff
Earliest close Nov 7, 2029
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) ↗
- 30%Democrats, 8 to 10%
- 25%Democrats, 10 to 12%
- 15%Democrats, 6 to 8%
Earliest close Nov 3, 2027

Prices from Kalshi prediction markets: the market-implied chance of each outcome, set by traders, not a forecast or advice from Penblock. Penblock is not affiliated with Kalshi.

US Politics & Elections

Morgan Stanley strategist: Either election result clears the way for gains

South Carolina conservatives back write-in candidate against Trump's Senate endorsement

Trump targets Omar and El-Sayed at final campaign events

Granddaughter and great-grandson of boxing legend back El-Sayed for Senate

Democrats set early voting records; Trump team readies probes; Alaska case dismissed

Trump campaigns in Iowa and Kansas to shore up Republican Senate seats

Trump policies may benefit wealthy coastal Democrats, analysis suggests

Rogers mocks Democratic rival with sarcastic birthday gift basket

GDP rises while inflation climbs ahead of midterm voting

Democratic physicians seek midterm seats opposing Trump health agenda

U.S. Attorney: Alaska Senate race criminal probe continues

Trump resumes Kansas and Iowa rallies after RNC reversal

Chicago-born Pope Leo XIV votes in US midterm elections

Alaska Democrat denies orchestrating dual-Sullivan ballot strategy

Inflation that boosted Republicans now threatens their midterm prospects

Early voting tops 43 million as Hispanic turnout surges in midterms

Global election defeats raise questions about Trump's sway overseas

Alaska governor launches investigation into alleged Sullivan recruitment scheme

Historical stock data shows market patterns around midterm elections

Roundup: Trump organizes campaign volunteers, attacks Obama, influencers face charges, Bolsonaro claims presidency

Roundup: Trump stumbles onstage, election systems breached, Netanyahu faces pressure, Harris attacks rival

Silicon Valley AI groups clash over 2026 election spending on regulation

Bessent visits Cheesecake Factory, criticizes Obama's Trump remarks

Israel and US elections in coming weeks will reshape global politics and markets

AARP: caregiver support policies sway midterm voters

Nicki Minaj appears at Trump Michigan rally as Senate race tightens

California Democrats redraw maps targeting five GOP districts

Obama campaigns with Michigan Senate candidate El-Sayed before midterms

Corruption tops voter concerns before midterms, CNBC poll finds

Trump's Texas support among Hispanic voters shows signs of weakening before midterms

Casselman: specific economic troubles drive voter discontent ahead of midterms

Alaska newsrooms pool resources to cover midterm elections

Trump attacks record early voting, praises Russia as drone strike kills infant

Stock market typically surges in six months after midterms

Early voting hits record levels as election nears

Probe launched into £55m loan to City owner during Burnham tenure

EPA revises website language about eliminating dangerous Pfas chemicals

Thousands participate in anti-Trump rallies across United States

Generational divide in cost pressures may shape 2026 midterm voting

Data centre opposition emerges as potential midterm election issue

Analysis examines pivotal races and polling ahead of US midterm elections

Trump distributes five-hundred-dollar checks before midterm voting

Five former Barclays traders win overturned convictions in rate-rigging case

Court of Appeal overturns convictions for five ex-Barclays traders

Republican candidates navigate complicated relationship with Trump ahead of elections

Daily roundup covers Trump removal pressure and midterm plans

Anthropic finds no unauthorized access to Australian government networks in review

Digital currency advocacy group supports three dozen House hopefuls

White supremacist group says its message gains traction before midterms

Democrats show strength heading into final midterm campaign month

Democratic House control could bring increased regulatory pressure on businesses

Ohio Democrat Brown targets union support to regain Senate seat

Regulators examine Kinzinger's prediction market wagers on personal pardon

Democrats seek to harness youth engagement through opposition to Trump

Trump lays out month-long campaign push before midterms

Trump administration curtails commodity regulator's enforcement push, alarming agricultural sector