Houthi ballistic missiles strike Yemeni presidential palace, killing two

A negotiated ceasefire or power-sharing agreement could reduce immediate escalation risk, though Yemen's fractured political landscape and external backing of rival factions would make sustained resolution difficult to achieve or maintain.

Continued low-intensity strikes without major escalation or diplomatic breakthrough would likely sustain the existing risk premium on energy and shipping, with markets pricing in chronic instability rather than acute crisis.

Widening strikes on infrastructure, ports, or oil facilities—or direct intervention by regional powers—could tighten energy supply expectations and widen risk spreads in crude and shipping-related assets, though the magnitude would depend on whether critical chokepoints face direct disruption.