Iraq's ability to address security challenges without foreign military support remains uncertain

A credible demonstration of Iraqi institutional capacity to counter ISIS remnants, militia fragmentation, and Iranian influence without US support would likely ease risk premiums on regional energy assets, though structural vulnerabilities would persist.

Continued low-level instability—militia activity, periodic ISIS attacks, and political gridlock—without major escalation or collapse would probably leave Iraq's security posture and oil export reliability priced in at current risk levels, with limited market repricing.

A significant security deterioration—whether from ISIS resurgence, intra-Iraqi militia conflict, or Iranian proxy expansion—would plausibly create upward pressure on crude volatility and risk premiums, given Iraq's export volume and the absence of a stabilizing US military presence.