Russia shows no indication of halting Ukraine operations, maintaining geopolitical tensions

A negotiated settlement or Russian withdrawal would likely trigger a sharp rally in energy prices (particularly natural gas) as supply uncertainty lifts, while geopolitical risk premiums compress across equities and credit markets.

Continuation of the current stalemate would plausibly sustain the existing elevated volatility in oil and gas markets, keep European energy costs elevated relative to pre-2022 levels, and maintain a persistent geopolitical risk premium that constrains risk appetite in cyclical sectors.

A material escalation—whether through expanded territorial gains, direct NATO involvement, or disruption of critical infrastructure—would put upward pressure on energy prices and safe-haven flows into bonds and currencies, while equity markets would face headwinds from both supply shocks and heightened tail risk.