Ukraine resumes attacks on Russian energy infrastructure after deal collapses

A negotiated framework re-establishing the energy infrastructure pause would likely ease crude price volatility and reduce geopolitical risk premiums in energy markets, though the collapse of the previous deal suggests structural obstacles to such an outcome.

If Ukrainian strikes continue at a steady but limited pace without major disruptions to Russian refining capacity, energy markets would plausibly settle into a new equilibrium with a modest geopolitical risk premium already priced in, limiting further upside pressure on crude.

Sustained or intensified Ukrainian strikes that materially reduce Russian refining output would put upward pressure on global crude prices and widen energy sector volatility, particularly affecting European energy security and inflation expectations.