Zeihan analyzes competing U.S. and Chinese strategies in artificial intelligence

A genuine resolution—such as bilateral agreements on AI development standards, semiconductor supply chain cooperation, or mutual technology-sharing frameworks—would likely ease geopolitical risk premiums in semiconductor and defense-adjacent tech stocks, though sustained gains would depend on enforcement credibility.

If the competitive dynamic persists without major policy shifts or supply-chain breakthroughs, semiconductor and AI infrastructure sectors would likely remain volatile, with pricing reflecting ongoing uncertainty about export controls, tariffs, and access to advanced manufacturing capacity.

Escalation through tighter U.S. export controls on chips and manufacturing equipment, Chinese retaliation, or a supply-chain fracture would plausibly create sustained upward pressure on semiconductor costs and downward pressure on companies dependent on cross-border chip sourcing or rare-earth access.