Iran-US Tensions
Escalating military and diplomatic tensions between Iran and the United States.
40 events tracked
What the Market Says
- US-Iran nuclear deal? ↗
- 36%Before Jan 20, 2029
- 35%Before Jan 1, 2028
- 19%Before Mar 1, 2027
Earliest close Nov 1, 2026
Prices from Kalshi prediction markets: the market-implied chance of each outcome, set by traders, not a forecast or advice from Penblock. Penblock is not affiliated with Kalshi.
- MEDIUM CONFIDENCE1 DAY AGO
UK PM Burnham says Iran likely behind RAF base incident: Is there evidence?
MAINSTREAMSourced from Al Jazeera
- MEDIUM CONFIDENCEMAINSTREAM ONLY2 DAYS AGO
UK says Iran may be linked to alleged airbase plot, drawing angry denial
UK alleges Iran may be linked to alleged airbase plot; Iran denies the claim.
MAINSTREAMANALYSISSourced from CNBC · Al Jazeera · Kagan Dunlap
- MEDIUM CONFIDENCEMAINSTREAM ONLY2 DAYS AGO
Iran war live: Trump hints US could strike Iran, warns time coming
Trump signals potential US military action against Iran, raising geopolitical risk.
MAINSTREAMSourced from Al Jazeera
- MEDIUM CONFIDENCEBLIND SPOT2 DAYS AGO
Deep Intel on the Iran War Report to Congress
Ward Carroll provides intelligence analysis on Iran conflict developments and congressional reporting.
ON-THE-GROUNDSourced from Ward Carroll
- MEDIUM CONFIDENCEBLIND SPOT3 DAYS AGO
U.S. Sanctions on Iran Take a New Approach || Peter Zeihan
U.S. shifts sanctions strategy on Iran, potentially altering energy supply and geopolitical risk dynamics.
ON-THE-GROUNDSourced from Peter Zeihan
SPONSORED
- MEDIUM CONFIDENCEMAINSTREAM ONLY3 DAYS AGO
Trump denies offering Iran sanctions relief; Qatar pushes for peace talks
Trump denies offering Iran sanctions relief while Qatar pushes for Middle East peace talks.
MAINSTREAMSourced from CNBC
- MEDIUM CONFIDENCEMAINSTREAM ONLY3 DAYS AGO
Iran war live: Trump claims war will end ‘very soon’, gives no details
Trump claims Iran war will end very soon without providing specifics on timing or terms.
MAINSTREAMSourced from Al Jazeera
- MEDIUM CONFIDENCEMAINSTREAM ONLY3 DAYS AGO
What we know about RAF Fairford ‘bomb plot’
RAF Fairford airbase in England faces alleged bomb plot; security incident at UK military facility.
MAINSTREAMSourced from Al Jazeera
- MEDIUM CONFIDENCEMAINSTREAM ONLYACUTE ↓3 DAYS AGO
US sanctions 10 entities for allegedly supporting Iran’s military
US sanctions 10 entities for allegedly supporting Iran's military.
MAINSTREAMSourced from Al Jazeera
- MEDIUM CONFIDENCEMAINSTREAM ONLY3 DAYS AGO
Trump administration ‘must be changed’: Iran’s IRGC appeals to US voters
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps appeals to US voters to change the Trump administration, signaling political messaging amid US-Iran tensions.
MAINSTREAMSourced from Al Jazeera
SPONSORED
- MEDIUM CONFIDENCEMAINSTREAM ONLY3 DAYS AGO
Iranians stock up on food and medicine as fears of new US fighting grow
Iranians increase purchases of food and medicine amid escalating US conflict concerns, signaling precautionary consumer behavior.
MAINSTREAMSourced from Al Jazeera
- MEDIUM CONFIDENCE4 DAYS AGO
US-Iran talks continue, but ‘deal unlikely’ before midterm elections
US-Iran nuclear talks continue but a deal is unlikely before US midterm elections, reducing near-term sanctions relief prospects.
MAINSTREAMSourced from Al Jazeera
- MEDIUM CONFIDENCEMAINSTREAM ONLY4 DAYS AGO
Iran’s Araghchi meets Qatari mediators as US calls for nuclear talks
Iran and US engage in separate mediated talks as Middle East oil exports reach wartime highs amid regional tensions.
MAINSTREAMSourced from Al Jazeera · CNBC
- MEDIUM CONFIDENCEMAINSTREAM ONLY4 DAYS AGO
Flights between Iraq’s Najaf and Iran resumed as Tehran protests US curbs
Iraq and Iran resume flights between Najaf and Tehran, signaling reduced tensions despite US sanctions pressure.
MAINSTREAMSourced from Al Jazeera
- MEDIUM CONFIDENCEMAINSTREAM ONLY4 DAYS AGO
Trump made the right decision to reject Iran’s offer
Trump rejected Iran's sanctions-relief offer, signaling continued U.S. pressure on Tehran.
MAINSTREAMSourced from Al Jazeera
SPONSORED
- MEDIUM CONFIDENCEMAINSTREAM ONLY4 DAYS AGO
How to Think About Trump and Iran
This is a single commentary piece from the American Enterprise Institute offering a framework for analyzing the Trump administration's approach to Iran policy. The specific conclusions and policy recommendations are not stated in the title, so the substantive content remains unknown from this source alone. No independent corroboration from other outlets is indicated. Potential market relevance: Oil & Energy, Defense & Aerospace, and Safe-Haven Assets could all be affected depending on whether the commentary advocates for escalation, de-escalation, or sanctions changes toward Iran—each scenario carries different implications for regional stability, crude supply, military spending, and risk-off asset demand.
NARRATIVESourced from American Enterprise Institute
- MEDIUM CONFIDENCEMAINSTREAM ONLYACUTE ↓4 DAYS AGO
Iran denies link to attack on airbase as UK minister warns of ‘proxies’
Iran denies involvement in airbase attack as UK official warns of proxy threats, escalating Middle East tensions.
MAINSTREAMSourced from Al Jazeera
- MEDIUM CONFIDENCEMAINSTREAM ONLY5 DAYS AGO
Oil Prices Climb on Continued Impasse in U.S.-Iran Talks
Trump rejects Iran's Strait of Hormuz reopening plan, lifting oil prices amid stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations.
MAINSTREAMSourced from The New York Times · Al Jazeera · NPR
- MEDIUM CONFIDENCEMAINSTREAM ONLY5 DAYS AGO
Iran’s children return to school under the shadow of war
Iran's schools reopen as regional tensions persist, signaling civilian life continues amid geopolitical uncertainty.
MAINSTREAMSourced from Al Jazeera
- MEDIUM CONFIDENCEMAINSTREAM ONLY5 DAYS AGO
UK police 'investigate Iran link' to alleged bomb threat against base hosting U.S. Air Force
UK police investigate alleged bomb threat at RAF base hosting U.S. Air Force, with reported Iran link.
MAINSTREAMSourced from CNBC · Al Jazeera
SPONSORED
- MEDIUM CONFIDENCEMAINSTREAM ONLY5 DAYS AGO
Why has Trump rejected Iran’s peace proposal?
Trump rejected Iran's peace proposal amid escalating Hormuz Strait tensions, lifting oil prices over 1%.
MAINSTREAMSourced from Al Jazeera · CNBC
- MEDIUM CONFIDENCEMAINSTREAM ONLY5 DAYS AGO
‘Iran ready for doomsday war’, FM Araghchi says
Iran's foreign minister says the country is prepared for an all-out war, escalating regional military rhetoric.
MAINSTREAMSourced from Al Jazeera
- MEDIUM CONFIDENCEMAINSTREAM ONLY5 DAYS AGO
Mike Waltz: US offered to sell Iran uranium for civilian programme
US offered to sell Iran uranium for civilian nuclear program, according to Rep. Mike Waltz.
MAINSTREAMSourced from Al Jazeera
- MEDIUM CONFIDENCEMAINSTREAM ONLY5 DAYS AGO
Iran's foreign minister keeps indirect talks with the U.S. open; Iranian navy claims capture of underwater drone
Iran's foreign minister signals willingness for indirect U.S. talks while Iranian navy claims seizure of underwater drone.
MAINSTREAMSourced from CNBC
- MEDIUM CONFIDENCEMAINSTREAM ONLY5 DAYS AGO
‘Better deal’: What’s behind Trump’s rejection of Iran’s truce offer?
Trump rejects Iran's truce offer; US-Iran tensions persist around Strait of Hormuz, raising geopolitical risk.
MAINSTREAMSourced from Al Jazeera
SPONSORED
- MEDIUM CONFIDENCEMAINSTREAM ONLY6 DAYS AGO
Did the biggest week of diplomacy make headway in ending the US-Iran war?
Iran rejects US diplomacy and Trump rebuffs Tehran's Hormuz proposal, escalating US-Iran tensions amid failed mediation efforts.
MAINSTREAMANALYSISSourced from Al Jazeera · Kagan Dunlap · BBC News
- MEDIUM CONFIDENCEMAINSTREAM ONLYACUTE ↓6 DAYS AGO
Trump rejects Iran deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz in seven days
Trump rejects Iran deal; claims he can reopen Strait of Hormuz within seven days.
MAINSTREAMSourced from BBC News
- MEDIUM CONFIDENCEMAINSTREAM ONLYACUTE ↓6 DAYS AGO
Trump rejects Iran's conditional ceasefire proposal, WSJ reports, as Saudi coalition intercepts projectiles
Trump rejects Iran's conditional ceasefire proposal; Saudi coalition intercepts projectiles in region.
MAINSTREAMSourced from CNBC
- MEDIUM CONFIDENCEMAINSTREAM ONLYACUTE ↓6 DAYS AGO
Trump rejects Iran’s seven-day peace deal to reopen strait of Hormuz
Trump rejects Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, escalating tensions over a critical oil chokepoint.
MAINSTREAMSourced from The Guardian · BBC News
- HIGH CONFIDENCECROSS-CONFIRMED7 DAYS AGO
Iran Update, September 26, 2026
Iran explores Caspian Sea trade routes as conflict threatens Strait of Hormuz shipping corridor.
ON-THE-GROUNDMAINSTREAMSourced from Institute for the Study of War · Al Jazeera
SPONSORED
- MEDIUM CONFIDENCEMAINSTREAM ONLYACUTE ↑7 DAYS AGO
U.S. crude oil falls nearly 8% for the week after Tehran and Washington hold talks at the U.N.
U.S. crude oil fell nearly 8% weekly after Tehran and Washington held talks at the U.N.
MAINSTREAMSourced from CNBC
- MEDIUM CONFIDENCEBLIND SPOT9 DAYS AGO
The REAL Truth About the Kuwaiti F/A-18 Shootdown of Three Strike Eagles
Kuwait's F/A-18 shot down three U.S. Air Force F-15E Strike Eagles in an incident; Ward Carroll discusses the actual circumstances.
ON-THE-GROUNDSourced from Ward Carroll
- MEDIUM CONFIDENCEBLIND SPOT12 DAYS AGO
Pulitzer Prize Winner Dan Yergin on How the Iran War Is Reshaping the Energy Map, and the Race to Power AI
Pulitzer Prize winner Dan Yergin discusses how Iran conflict is reshaping global energy markets and AI power demands.
ON-THE-GROUNDSourced from Bridgewater Associates
- MEDIUM CONFIDENCEBLIND SPOT12 DAYS AGO
Epic Fury's Forever War TRAP
Trump declares US guardian of Strait amid ceasefire collapse, signaling potential military escalation in critical shipping chokepoint.
ON-THE-GROUNDSourced from Ward Carroll
- MEDIUM CONFIDENCEBLIND SPOT12 DAYS AGO
Heroic Iranian Fighter Pilot Explains How Epic Fury FAILED
Former Navy pilot Ward Carroll interviews Iranian fighter pilot on technical failures in Epic Fury operation.
ON-THE-GROUNDSourced from Ward Carroll
SPONSORED
- MEDIUM CONFIDENCEBLIND SPOT12 DAYS AGO
Navy Secretary Says the Quiet Part OUT LOUD
Navy Secretary makes candid public statement; content and market relevance unclear from title alone.
ON-THE-GROUNDSourced from Ward Carroll
- UNSCOREDCONTEXT ONLY12 DAYS AGO
Iran’s security chief said that Tehran has formally passed conditions to Washington for ending war
Iran's security chief conveys formal conditions to Washington for ending conflict, signaling diplomatic opening.
ANALYSISSourced from Kagan Dunlap
- UNSCOREDBLIND SPOT12 DAYS AGO
Important Sunday Update: White House ‘Somber’ as Trump Accepts Grim Outlook, Iran War Escalates, ICE Shooting, Ukraine Attacks
Trump administration faces escalating Iran tensions and Ukraine conflict while domestic ICE incident occurs.
ON-THE-GROUNDSourced from Aaron Parnas
- MEDIUM CONFIDENCEBLIND SPOT12 DAYS AGO
Iran Update, September 18, 2026
The Institute for the Study of War has published daily Iran updates over a two-week period (September 9–18, 2026), and Peter Zeihan has separately commented on the revival of prize courts for Iran seizures. The daily ISW updates indicate ongoing operational developments in or around Iran, but the specific claims or conclusions from those reports are not stated in the titles alone. Zeihan's reference to prize courts—a historical mechanism for privateering and seizure—suggests potential disruption to shipping or commerce involving Iranian assets or vessels. This event connects to Shipping & Logistics (prize court seizures would directly affect maritime commerce and insurance costs) and potentially Oil & Energy (if Iranian oil shipments or tankers are targeted), though the exact scope and nature of the seizures are not detailed in the available claim titles.
ON-THE-GROUNDSourced from Institute for the Study of War · Peter Zeihan
- UNSCOREDCONTEXT ONLY16 DAYS AGO
8 Nations Held a Secret Military Meeting Over Iran
Eight nations held a secret military meeting regarding Iran, according to Kagan Dunlap.
ANALYSISSourced from Kagan Dunlap