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UK Economic Outlook

Today in UK Economic Outlook· Nov 12

Britain's economy expanded 0.7% in the third quarter, the fastest pace since 2022, reducing near-term recession risk and supporting demand for sterling and gilt-backed assets. The acceleration narrows the case for further Bank of England rate cuts, which would otherwise weigh on gilt yields. Separately, Middle East geopolitical instability is tightening global energy supplies and lifting wholesale gas costs; Island Energy is raising rates 5% in December as a direct result. Ofwat has tightened executive bonus caps at English and Welsh water companies to restore public trust eroded by rising customer bills and environmental compliance costs. The constraint reduces operating flexibility for utilities; if investment needs exceed retained earnings, firms will cut infrastructure spending, raise bills further, or reduce shareholder payouts.

UK fiscal challenges, debt sustainability, growth forecasts, and budget policy decisions affecting the British economy.

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