US-Canada-Iran Tensions
Escalating geopolitical tensions involving US military presence in the Middle East, Iranian strikes on American bases, Chinese support for Iran, and Canadian-US relations amid broader security concerns.
4 events tracked
What the Market Says
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? ↗
- 60%Before Jan 1, 2029
- 57%Before Jul 1, 2028
- 49%Before Jan 1, 2028
Earliest close Nov 3, 2026
- How high will average weekly Hormuz traffic get in 2026? ↗
- 19%Above 30
- 16%Above 40
- 12%Above 50
Earliest close Jan 5, 2027
- Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/19 - 10/25) ↗
- 98%Above 15
- 89%Above 20
- 72%Above 23
Earliest close Oct 27, 2026
Prices from Kalshi prediction markets: the market-implied chance of each outcome, set by traders, not a forecast or advice from Penblock. Penblock is not affiliated with Kalshi.
- Single sourceMARKET SHOCK ↓7 days ago
U.S. Marine Corps attack helicopters sink Iranian boat in Arabian waters
Two AH-1Z Viper helicopters operated by the Marine Corps destroyed an Iranian vessel operating in the Gulf of Oman.
Kagan Dunlap
- Single source11 days ago
Potential Iran conflict could jeopardize UK spending blueprint, fiscal research group cautions
Iran conflict risk could force UK government to increase defense spending, complicating fiscal plans.
BBC News
- Single sourceMARKET SHOCK ↓17 days ago
U.S. Southern Command carried out deadly military operation in early October
U.S. Southern Command executed a lethal kinetic strike on October 4, 2026.
Kagan Dunlap
- Single sourceNOT IN MAINSTREAM YET28 days ago
Trump associates push for martial law as Canada reduces energy dependence and China backs Iranian attacks
Trump allies reportedly urge martial law; Canada seeks energy independence from US; China assists Iran strikes on American bases.
Aaron Parnas