Shell projects refining margins will nearly double to $42 per barrel

If the supply constraints that drove the margin forecast ease faster than expected—through rapid restoration of damaged refining capacity or a demand slowdown—realized margins would fall short of projections, potentially pressuring downstream energy stocks and moderating fuel price support.

Should refining margins track close to Shell's $42/barrel forecast through Q3, the energy sector would likely sustain elevated downstream profitability, supporting integrated oil majors' cash generation and potentially keeping upward pressure on retail fuel prices absent demand destruction.

If supply disruptions worsen or persist beyond current expectations, refining margins could exceed the $42 forecast, amplifying both energy company earnings upside and consumer-facing fuel costs, which could trigger policy scrutiny or demand response that eventually constrains the margin expansion.