US Economic Policy

Federal Reserve leadership, monetary policy decisions, and economic management strategies for inflation, growth, and financial stability.

65 events across this topic and its sub-topics

Global Debt & Currency Crisis US Entitlement Reform US Inflation & Cost of Living US Interest Rates & Bonds US Federal Budget & Appropriations US Tax Policy & Compliance US Campaign Finance & Elections US Medicaid & Welfare Reform US Campaign Finance & Advertising US Cost of Living Crisis US Tax & Citizenship Policy Student Loan Policy Trump Savings Accounts US Healthcare Subsidies

Relevant to:Fixed Income & Bonds Equities Safe-Haven Assets Financial Services & Banking Currencies

What the Market Says

Number of rate cuts in 2026? ↗
- 95%Exactly 0 cuts
- 5%Exactly 1 cut
- 1%Exactly 2 cuts
Earliest close Jan 1, 2027
Fed decision in Oct 2026? ↗
- 82%Fed maintains rate
- 19%Hike 25bps
- 1%Hike >25bps
Earliest close Oct 28, 2026
How high will US gas prices get in 2026? ↗
- 55%Above $4.60
- 36%Above $4.80
- 31%Above $5.00
Earliest close Dec 31, 2026

Prices from Kalshi prediction markets: the market-implied chance of each outcome, set by traders, not a forecast or advice from Penblock. Penblock is not affiliated with Kalshi.

US Economic Policy

Soft Jobs Report Boosts Market Bets Fed Will Skip October Rate Increase

US jobs market sees sharp slowdown ahead of midterm elections

NEWS: Trump Tries to Buy Votes With $500 Checks, GOP Senator Tells Trump "I Don't Take This Bullsh*t," Final Jobs Report Tanks, and More

The U.S. added only 29,000 jobs in September as job market lacks spark

Why is diesel more expensive than regular gas?

U.S. manufacturers say inflation is bad and not getting any better

September jobs report may show labor market is on the mend — but it’s far from cured

Trump Accounts have auto-enrolled more than 60 million children, Treasury says

Social Security claiming ages may soon get new names. What retirees need to know

U.S. Bond Yields Hit Highest Level Since 2002

Retail investors are aggressively piling into this bold contrarian bet through one ETF.

10-year Treasury yield hits highest level since 2002 as global bond rout gathers pace

Fuel prices leave people asking 'what can we do?'

Bessent Settled Tax Issue That Had Put Him at Odds With I.R.S.

Cramer says 'frozen' conditions are holding many stocks back. Here's what could change that

Treasury launches student loan support center as new data show 9.3 million borrowers in default

Trump administration starts sending $500 Obamacare refund checks — who stands to benefit

A brutal September for bonds points to an even darker October

Fed’s Watchdog Finds No Misconduct or Illegal Activity in Costly Renovations

Senate Democrats sink 'toothless' stock trading ban, data center bill in last act before election recess

Federal Reserve watchdog finds no criminal violations for building renovation cost overruns

Fed’s Preferred Inflation Gauge Points to Continued Price Pressures

Bracing for More Inflation Volatility

Holiday retail sales are expected to top $1 trillion as inflation boosts growth

‘I’m afraid of human stupidity’: Why this top economist prefers U.S. tech and gold over bonds

He’s been badmouthing Treasury bonds since 2020, but now ‘the big fat cushion’ of 5.25% yields is turning this strategist bullish

Pressure on U.S. Treasurys eases after 30-year yield hits highest level since 2002

Hedge funds now hold a record share of the $30 trillion Treasury market. What could go wrong?

US consumer confidence hits its lowest level since 2014 ahead of midterms

Traders expecting a back-to-back rate hike from the Fed in October may have gotten ahead of themselves

Prediction market traders think the U.S. added more jobs in September than economists estimate

The Fed's main inflation measure will be released Wednesday. Here's what to expect

Trump Accounts will auto-enroll children, potentially adding 60 million accounts: Treasury

Trump government ads were funded by Homeland Security, WSJ reports

Education Department extends deadline for student loan interest rate discount

Medicare Advantage plans will be cheaper next year. Here’s the new cost.

Consumer optimism slides sharply as fears escalate over rising prices and jobs

Trump Administration Prepares to Ask Tax Filers if They Are U.S. Citizens

The Curious Case of Stock Market Denial

Investors who have shunned diversification face maybe the best buying opportunity for bonds in decades

Hassett: 'We're still working our way out from' Biden Covid spending

IRS sends notices on Saver's Match to taxpayers who might qualify for new benefit, worth up to $2,000

Higher rates are wreaking havoc on these two ETFs. Traders see one bouncing back

Treasury yields move lower as inflation concerns persist

Bond yields move relentlessly higher, as Wall Street wonders how much more tech stocks can take

IRS hires Joseph Velli to help administer Trump accounts

‘F*cking P*dophile’: Trump Faces Backlash as Food Banks Run Dry, Fuel Costs Soar, Healthcare Premiums Rise, and the War Rages

Four ways to keep your energy bills down

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hires Wall Street economist David Zervos

U.S. Treasury yields edge higher amid pressure on global government bonds

Should you lock into a fixed-rate savings account paying 5.25%?

Social Security overpaid my 82-year-old mother by $20,000. What else is hiding in her finances?

Why the upcoming jobs report could send 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields surging

White House moves to block $810 million in funding through pocket rescission

From $6 eggs to $50,000 cars, these charts show how inflation has defined the past 5 years

Social Security checks are projected to be cut by $540 a month in just six years

Millions will lose Medicaid once new work rules kick in. These groups will be hit the hardest.

High Gas and Rising Mortgage Rates Trouble Trump as Midterms Near

The Latest Projections from the Congressional Budget Office on Social Security Finances and Distribution of Benefits and Taxes

Warsh's regime change at the Fed pushes ahead – and meets resistance

Fed Faces Prospect of Another Interest Rate Increase Just Before Midterm Elections

The Bull Case for Gold

The Office of Management and Budget’s Minimalist Mid-Session Review

Is Kevin Warsh the Man for Our Economy’s Difficult Hour?

The 10-year Treasury yield is at its highest in nearly two decades. How we got here

‘Fcking Pdophile’: Trump Faces Backlash as Food Banks Run Dry, Fuel Costs Soar, Healthcare Premiums Rise, and the War Rages