US Interest Rates & Bonds
Federal Reserve monetary policy, Treasury yields, inflation dynamics, and their effects on borrowing costs, asset valuations, and financial markets.
52 events tracked
Latest in US Interest Rates & Bonds· Oct 22
Treasury yields plummeted as investors fled riskier assets into government bonds, a flight-to-safety move that typically signals equity weakness or heightened uncertainty. The decline reflects broad unwinding of trades rather than isolated repositioning. Lower yields reduce borrowing costs but compress returns on fixed income and squeeze bank net interest margins. Former Fed official Warsh's earlier warnings about mounting economic uncertainty have gained credence as market conditions deteriorated.
What the Market Says
- Fed decision in Oct 2026? ↗
- 94%Fed maintains rate
- 6%Hike 25bps
- 1%Hike >25bps
Earliest close Oct 28, 2026
- Number of rate cuts in 2026? ↗
- 95%Exactly 0 cuts
- 3%Exactly 1 cut
- 1%Exactly 2 cuts
Earliest close Jan 1, 2027
- Fed decision in Dec 2026? ↗
- 73%Hike 25bps
- 26%Fed maintains rate
- 5%Hike >25bps
Earliest close Dec 9, 2026
Prices from Kalshi prediction markets: the market-implied chance of each outcome, set by traders, not a forecast or advice from Penblock. Penblock is not affiliated with Kalshi.
- Single sourceabout 5 hours ago
Warsh vindicated as Fed faces mounting economic uncertainty
American Enterprise Institute
- Single sourceabout 7 hours ago
Treasury yields plummet as investors unwind trades, PGIM strategist says
Treasury yields plunge sharply as investors shift to safe-haven assets, signaling risk-off sentiment.
MarketWatch
- Single source1 day ago
BlackRock's Rieder spots historic opening in premium-grade bonds
BlackRock's Rick Rieder calls current high-quality bond valuations a historic buying opportunity.
CNBC
- Single source1 day ago
Treasury yields hold steady ahead of jobs and housing reports
Treasury yields hold steady ahead of jobless claims and mortgage data releases.
CNBC
- Single source3 days ago
Treasury yields decline ahead of housing and jobs reports
U.S. Treasury yields fall as markets await housing and employment reports.
CNBC
SPONSORED
- Single source6 days ago
Economists debate whether Federal Reserve should raise rates this month
Some analysts argue against a rate increase while others dispute those concerns, making the Fed's decision less certain than market pricing suggests.
MarketWatch
- Single source6 days ago
Bond traders signal yields have peaked despite inflation data surprises
Bond market showed muted reaction to inflation shocks, signaling potential disconnect with equity valuations.
MarketWatch
- Reported by 2 outlets6 days ago
U.S. budget shortfall approaches two trillion dollars amid elevated borrowing expenses
U.S. budget deficit approaches $2 trillion, challenging Trump administration's cost-cutting agenda.
The New York Times · CNBC
- Reported by 2 outlets7 days ago
Fed chair signals no rate increase this month despite inflation pressures
New York Times examines timing of Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and their market implications.
CNBC · The New York Times
- Single source7 days ago
Columnist argues rising rates make bonds increasingly appealing to investors
Bond market weakness may create investment opportunities as yields rise and valuations adjust.
The New York Times
SPONSORED
- Single source7 days ago
Elevated producer prices suggest Federal Reserve rate cuts remain distant
Hot PPI data suggests Federal Reserve inflation-fighting work remains incomplete, weighing on rate-cut expectations.
CNBC
- Single source8 days ago
Analyst examines how elevated borrowing costs strain U.S. fiscal position
U.S. fiscal deficit and Treasury yields at 5% pose mounting economic challenges, pressuring asset valuations and borrowing costs.
CNBC
- Single source8 days ago
Major banks decline despite solid earnings reports
Jim Cramer analyzes why bank stocks fell despite strong earnings reports.
CNBC
- Single source8 days ago
Disagreement grows over whether Fed will lift rates at upcoming meeting
Market observers and economists remain divided on the likelihood of a quarter-point rate increase at the Federal Reserve's gathering in two weeks.
MarketWatch
- Single source9 days ago
Treasury yields decline slightly while markets await inflation data
U.S. Treasury yields decline as markets await inflation data that could influence Federal Reserve policy.
CNBC
SPONSORED
- Single source9 days ago
New York Fed president suggests rate increases may end before 2027
Fed's Neel Kashkari signals no rate hikes needed in 2027, contradicting market pricing expectations.
CNBC
- Single source9 days ago
JPMorgan earnings disappoint as rising rates pressure profitability
JPMorgan's profits decline as higher interest rates compress margins and reduce lending demand.
The New York Times
- Single source10 days ago
BlackRock shifts stance on government debt after six-year period
Top global fund manager reverses six-year bond stance, signaling potential shift in fixed-income outlook.
MarketWatch
- Single source10 days ago
Analysts cite rising term premium as bond yield driver amid debt concerns
Bond yields are rising due to shifting market forces, raising concerns about economic and financial stability.
The New York Times
- Single source10 days ago
Cleveland Fed official says additional rate increases may be required to prevent inflation expectations from becoming entrenched
Fed's Hammack says higher rates may be necessary to prevent an inflationary mindset from becoming entrenched.
CNBC
SPONSORED
- Single source11 days ago
Inflation data this week could force Fed's hand on October rate decision
Fed officials signal reluctance to raise rates this month, with upcoming inflation data as a potential constraint on that stance.
MarketWatch
- Single source11 days ago
Morgan Stanley strategist says bond market tightening may reduce need for rate increases
Bond market tightening is performing monetary policy functions, potentially supporting equity valuations, according to Morgan Stanley.
MarketWatch
- Single source12 days ago
Major banks begin earnings reports amid elevated interest rate environment
Bank earnings season will reveal how elevated interest rates are impacting economic activity and financial conditions.
MarketWatch
- Single source15 days ago
Senior Federal Reserve official expresses skepticism about near-term rate increase
Federal Reserve official signals rate increase unlikely this month, supporting risk assets and bond prices.
The New York Times
- Single source15 days ago
Ultrashort bond funds provide attractive income with limited downside
Bond market segment offers attractive yields relative to risk, drawing investor interest.
MarketWatch
SPONSORED
- Single source16 days ago
Treasury yields climb as investors await 10-year note sale and Fed minutes
Treasury yields rise before 10-year auction and Federal Reserve minutes release.
CNBC
- Single source16 days ago
Rising bond yields pressure dividend stocks relied upon by retirees
Rising bond yields pressure dividend stocks held by retirees, threatening retirement income streams.
CNBC
- Single source17 days ago
Long-term Treasury bonds carry risks despite their safe reputation
MarketWatch examines whether 30-year Treasury bonds are appropriate for retirement savings.
MarketWatch
- Single source17 days ago
Treasury yields hold steady ahead of Federal Reserve meeting notes
Treasury yields hold steady ahead of FOMC minutes release as investors await policy signals.
CNBC
- Single source18 days ago
Bessent retreats from earlier 'house' comment as bond yields keep climbing
Treasury Secretary Bessent comments on continued bond yield rises despite his earlier statement, signaling market skepticism of policy messaging.
MarketWatch
SPONSORED
- Single source18 days ago
Treasury yields decline as investors reduce expectations for additional Fed increases
Treasury yields decline as investors reduce expectations for Federal Reserve rate increases.
CNBC
- Single source18 days ago
Rising Treasury yields spark debt concerns but not imminent crisis
Treasury yields are rising but do not yet indicate imminent U.S. fiscal crisis, according to CNBC analysis.
CNBC
- Single source18 days ago
Bessent acknowledges limits of Treasury influence amid market pressure
Treasury Secretary Bessent acknowledges bond market pressure after being criticized, signaling potential policy recalibration on fiscal or rate matters.
The New York Times
- Single source19 days ago
Federal Reserve meeting minutes may offer insight into upcoming policy decisions
Federal Reserve meeting minutes due this week may signal future interest rate decisions.
MarketWatch
- Single source20 days ago
Bond yields hit generational peaks as investors assess market risks
Treasury yields reach generational highs, prompting investors to prepare for potential market disruption.
MarketWatch
SPONSORED
- Single sourceMARKET SHOCK ↑20 days ago
Disappointing employment figures raise odds Fed pauses rate hikes next month
Weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data increases market expectations the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady in October.
The New York Times
- Single source21 days ago
Utilities sector may recover as bond volatility subsides, analyst suggests
A sector hit by bond sell-off volatility may be positioned for a rebound, according to market analyst commentary.
CNBC
- Reported by 2 outlets22 days ago
Fixed-income returns climb to two-decade peak as geopolitical tensions persist
U.S. bond yields reached their highest level since 2002, signaling a significant shift in fixed-income markets.
The New York Times · MarketWatch
- Reported by 2 outlets22 days ago
Retail traders flock to contrarian ETF as bond yields hit decade highs
Retail investors are concentrating positions in a contrarian ETF while global bond yields surge to concerning levels.
The New York Times · MarketWatch
- Single source22 days ago
Ten-year Treasury yield climbs to two-decade peak as worldwide government debt selling intensifies
10-year Treasury yield reaches highest level since 2002 amid accelerating global bond selloff.
CNBC
SPONSORED
- Single source22 days ago
Bond selloff in September signals potential deterioration ahead
Bond markets suffered sharp losses in September, raising concerns about continued weakness in October.
MarketWatch
- Single source23 days ago
Long-time Treasury skeptic turns positive on bonds at current yield levels
A strategist shifts bullish on Treasury bonds, citing 5.25% yields as attractive after years of bearish calls.
MarketWatch
- Single source23 days ago
Long-dated Treasury yields decline from two-decade peak
U.S. 30-year Treasury yield retreats from its highest level since 2002, easing pressure on the bond market.
CNBC
- Single source23 days ago
Hedge funds' expanding Treasury holdings spark stability concerns
Hedge funds hold record share of $30 trillion Treasury market, raising questions about systemic risk.
CNBC
- Single source23 days ago
Analyst argues traders may be overestimating odds of dual Fed increases next month
MarketWatch analysis suggests market expectations for consecutive Fed rate hikes in October may be overblown.
MarketWatch
SPONSORED
- Single source23 days ago
Fixed income valuations draw investors back to diversification
Bond valuations have reached levels that may attract investors who previously avoided diversification into fixed income.
CNBC
- Single source24 days ago
Rate increases strain two ETFs as traders bet on selective recovery
Rising interest rates are pressuring two ETFs; traders expect one to recover.
CNBC
- Single source24 days ago
Bond yields fall as investors seek protection from inflation risks
Treasury yields decline amid ongoing inflation concerns, signaling demand for safer fixed-income assets.
CNBC
- Single source24 days ago
Bond yields climb further, testing limits of technology sector gains
Bond yields rise sharply, raising questions about sustainability of elevated tech stock valuations.
MarketWatch
- Single source25 days ago
Treasury yields climb as worldwide government debt comes under pressure
U.S. Treasury yields rise as global government bonds face selling pressure.
CNBC
SPONSORED
- Single source25 days ago
Savers weigh locking in 5.25% returns against waiting for potentially higher rates
The Guardian examines whether 5.25% fixed-rate savings accounts offer value for savers in the current environment.
The Guardian
- Reported by 2 outletsover 1 year ago
Long-term borrowing costs surge to two-decade peaks, sparking stability warnings
U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reaches nearly two-decade highs amid rapid rate rises, raising financial stability concerns.
CNBC · The Wall Street Journal