US Interest Rates & Bonds
Today in US Interest Rates & Bonds· Nov 12
Treasury yields rose as investors positioned ahead of inflation and housing data due later this week. Stronger readings would signal persistent price pressures and delay Fed rate cuts, keeping borrowing costs elevated and pressuring equity multiples. Weaker data would open the door to near-term rate reductions.
Federal Reserve monetary policy, Treasury yields, inflation dynamics, and their effects on borrowing costs, asset valuations, and financial markets.
87 events tracked
What the Market Says
- Number of rate cuts in 2026? ↗
- 98%Exactly 0 cuts
- 1%Exactly 1 cut
- 1%Exactly 14 cuts
Earliest close Jan 1, 2027
- Fed decision in Dec 2026? ↗
- 86%Hike 25bps
- 11%Hike >25bps
- 5%Fed maintains rate
Earliest close Dec 9, 2026
- Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting? ↗
- 100%Above 3.75%
- 100%Above 3.50%
- 100%Above 3.00%
Earliest close Dec 9, 2026
Prices from Kalshi prediction markets: the market-implied chance of each outcome, set by traders, not a forecast or advice from Penblock. Penblock is not affiliated with Kalshi.
- Single sourceabout 6 hours ago
Treasury yields climb as markets await inflation, housing reports
Treasury yields rise as markets await inflation and housing reports that will shift rate expectations.
CNBC
- Single sourceabout 15 hours ago
Crude's decline fails to ease U.S. bond yields as inflation fears broaden
Oil price declines no longer reliably lower U.S. Treasury yields, breaking a historical correlation.
MarketWatch
- Reported by 2 outlets1 day ago
Inflation surge splits Fed officials over pace of rate increases
Federal Reserve officials disagree on the pace of interest rate increases.
CNBC · The New York Times
- Single source1 day ago
Treasury trading halts for Veterans Day following inflation-driven decline
U.S. Treasury trading halts for a market holiday following inflation-driven bond selloff.
The Wall Street Journal
- Single source1 day ago
Equities slide as 10-year Treasury approaches 5%
U.S. stocks decline as 10-year Treasury yield approaches 5%, raising borrowing costs.
MarketWatch
- Reported by 2 outlets1 day ago
Investing Club: GE Vernova sellers misjudge value as Fed hike bets surge
Daily market update argues GE Vernova sellers are wrong while discussing rising odds of Federal Reserve rate increases.
The Wall Street Journal · CNBC
- Reported by 3 outletsMARKET SHOCK ↓2 days ago
Benchmark government bond rates jump to 5% on inflation surprise, Fed official remarks
Ten-year Treasury yield climbs to 5% on hotter inflation data and Fed rate-hike signals, pressuring bond valuations.
Wolf Street · The Wall Street Journal · CNBC
- Single source2 days ago
Treasury yields climb as markets await October inflation report
Treasury yields rise as markets await U.S. inflation data that will shape Federal Reserve policy.
The Wall Street Journal
- Single sourceNOT IN MAINSTREAM YET4 days ago
Bond traders brace for inflation data and Treasury auctions next week
Commentary warns that rising Treasury yields next week would signal weakness in bond markets.
Wolf Street
- Single source6 days ago
Steady jobs market sets stage for Fed rate hike in December
Stable U.S. labor market supports Federal Reserve's gradual rate-increase path.
The New York Times
- Single source6 days ago
Treasuries offer attractive returns as equity volatility rises
Wall Street Journal argues Treasury bonds remain attractive despite recent market moves.
The Wall Street Journal
- Single source6 days ago
Democratic gains fuel speculation about future rate trajectory
Democratic election sweep prompts market reassessment of Federal Reserve interest rate trajectory.
CNBC
- Single source7 days ago
Fed official expects gradual rate increases to combat inflation
Richmond Fed President Barkin signals future rate hikes will proceed gradually, supporting moderate tightening expectations.
CNBC
- Reported by 2 outlets8 days ago
Treasury yields drop as stock futures tumble on Democratic midterm gains
Bond investors fled equities following strong Democratic performance in midterm elections, pushing Treasury yields lower.
CNBC · The Guardian
- Single source10 days ago
Warsh plans fewer Fed rate votes, potentially delaying borrower relief
Federal Reserve signals less frequent rate-setting meetings, reshaping borrowing cost predictability for households and markets.
CNBC
- Single source11 days ago
2026 midterms may reshape municipal bond market through tax votes and Congress
U.S. midterm elections will reshape municipal bond market dynamics through shifts in fiscal policy and tax treatment.
CNBC
- Single sourceNOT IN MAINSTREAM YET11 days ago
Treasury sales hit $907 billion as investors flee AI stocks for safety
The U.S. government sold nearly $1 trillion in Treasury securities as investors abandoned technology stocks and sought safer assets, pushing yields lower.
Wolf Street
- Reported by 2 outlets13 days ago
Fed officials signal return to rate increases ahead
Fed officials signal readiness to resume rate hikes, pressuring bond valuations and equity multiples.
MarketWatch · CNBC
- Reported by 2 outlets14 days ago
Microsoft plans $25 billion bond offering as AI funding appetite shifts
Microsoft plans $25 billion bond offering as investor appetite for AI-funded debt cools.
CNBC · MarketWatch
- Single source14 days ago
Fed keeps rates unchanged as economy expands
Federal Reserve holds rates steady as US economy expands, supporting equity valuations while keeping bond yields stable.
BBC News
- Single source14 days ago
Warsh's ambiguity on rates gives Fed chair leverage with markets
CNBC
- Single source14 days ago
U.S. household income rises 0.2% in September as spending accelerates
U.S. personal income and spending data for September 2026 released; consumption trends shape rate expectations.
Bureau of Economic Analysis
- Single source14 days ago
Fed's cautious pace on rate hikes risks falling behind inflation
New York Times opinion argues the Fed risks falling behind inflation by cutting rates too slowly.
The New York Times
- Single source15 days ago
Bessent: Further Fed rate increases wouldn't necessarily be wrong
Treasury Secretary Bessent says further Fed rate hikes would not necessarily be a mistake, signaling openness to tighter policy.
CNBC
- Single source15 days ago
Corporate bonds offer attractive returns as treasury yields hit 5%
Corporate bond yields have risen to levels that make them attractive relative to recent history.
CNBC
- Reported by 2 outletsMARKET SHOCK ↓15 days ago
Fed keeps rates unchanged as inflation stalls; Warsh cites December data
Federal Reserve holds rates unchanged as inflation remains above target, keeping policy on hold.
The Guardian · The New York Times
- Reported by 3 outlets15 days ago
Fed likely holds rates steady; December increase could raise holiday borrowing costs
Federal Reserve holds rates steady as inflation concerns persist, keeping borrowing costs unchanged across credit products.
CNBC · The New York Times · NPR
- Single source15 days ago
Fed expected to keep rates unchanged ahead of midterm elections
Federal Reserve announces interest rate decision today; market focus on inflation trajectory and forward guidance.
The New York Times
- Single source16 days ago
Banga: AI boom lifts borrowing costs despite ample capital
World Bank president says capital availability is not constraining AI investment despite rising borrowing costs.
CNBC
- Single source16 days ago
Fed likely keeps rates flat as Warsh faces pressure over inflation
The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain current interest rates despite rising inflation and a resilient job market, forcing the central bank chair to justify the decision.
The New York Times
- Reported by 2 outlets16 days ago
Fed likely keeps rates flat as Warsh faces pressure over inflation
The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain current interest rates despite rising inflation and a resilient job market, forcing the central bank chair to justify the decision.
The New York Times · CNBC
- Single source17 days ago
Fed poised to skip rate cut at October meeting
Federal Reserve expected to hold rates steady in October, keeping borrowing costs unchanged for consumers.
CNBC
- Single source18 days ago
Analyst: Watch financial conditions, not Fed rate, for policy clues
MarketWatch
- Single source20 days ago
Treasuries rally as AI jitters spur flight to safety
10-year Treasury yield fell to 5% as investors fled equities amid AI concerns.
CNBC
- Single source20 days ago
Money market funds offer straightforward returns as rates climb
New York Times recommends money market funds as a way to capture returns from higher interest rates.
The New York Times
- Single source21 days ago
Warsh vindicated as Fed faces mounting economic uncertainty
American Enterprise Institute
- Reported by 2 outlets21 days ago
Treasury yields plummet as investors unwind trades, PGIM strategist says
Treasury yields plunge sharply as investors shift to safe-haven assets, signaling risk-off sentiment.
CNBC · MarketWatch
- Single source22 days ago
BlackRock's Rieder spots historic opening in premium-grade bonds
BlackRock's Rick Rieder calls current high-quality bond valuations a historic buying opportunity.
CNBC
- Single source22 days ago
Treasury yields hold steady ahead of jobs and housing reports
Treasury yields hold steady ahead of jobless claims and mortgage data releases.
CNBC
- Single source23 days ago
Treasury yields decline ahead of housing and jobs reports
U.S. Treasury yields fall as markets await housing and employment reports.
CNBC
- Single source26 days ago
Economists debate whether Federal Reserve should raise rates this month
Some analysts argue against a rate increase while others dispute those concerns, making the Fed's decision less certain than market pricing suggests.
MarketWatch
- Single source27 days ago
Bond traders signal yields have peaked despite inflation data surprises
Bond market showed muted reaction to inflation shocks, signaling potential disconnect with equity valuations.
MarketWatch
- Reported by 2 outlets27 days ago
U.S. budget shortfall approaches two trillion dollars amid elevated borrowing expenses
U.S. budget deficit approaches $2 trillion, challenging Trump administration's cost-cutting agenda.
The New York Times · CNBC
- Reported by 2 outlets27 days ago
Fed chair signals no rate increase this month despite inflation pressures
New York Times examines timing of Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and their market implications.
CNBC · The New York Times
- Single source27 days ago
Columnist argues rising rates make bonds increasingly appealing to investors
Bond market weakness may create investment opportunities as yields rise and valuations adjust.
The New York Times
- Single source28 days ago
Elevated producer prices suggest Federal Reserve rate cuts remain distant
Hot PPI data suggests Federal Reserve inflation-fighting work remains incomplete, weighing on rate-cut expectations.
CNBC
- Single source28 days ago
Analyst examines how elevated borrowing costs strain U.S. fiscal position
U.S. fiscal deficit and Treasury yields at 5% pose mounting economic challenges, pressuring asset valuations and borrowing costs.
CNBC
- Single source29 days ago
Major banks decline despite solid earnings reports
Jim Cramer analyzes why bank stocks fell despite strong earnings reports.
CNBC
- Single source29 days ago
Disagreement grows over whether Fed will lift rates at upcoming meeting
Market observers and economists remain divided on the likelihood of a quarter-point rate increase at the Federal Reserve's gathering in two weeks.
MarketWatch
- Single source29 days ago
Treasury yields decline slightly while markets await inflation data
U.S. Treasury yields decline as markets await inflation data that could influence Federal Reserve policy.
CNBC
- Single source30 days ago
New York Fed president suggests rate increases may end before 2027
Fed's Neel Kashkari signals no rate hikes needed in 2027, contradicting market pricing expectations.
CNBC
- Single sourceabout 1 month ago
JPMorgan earnings disappoint as rising rates pressure profitability
JPMorgan's profits decline as higher interest rates compress margins and reduce lending demand.
The New York Times
- Single sourceabout 1 month ago
BlackRock shifts stance on government debt after six-year period
Top global fund manager reverses six-year bond stance, signaling potential shift in fixed-income outlook.
MarketWatch
- Single sourceabout 1 month ago
Analysts cite rising term premium as bond yield driver amid debt concerns
Bond yields are rising due to shifting market forces, raising concerns about economic and financial stability.
The New York Times
- Single sourceabout 1 month ago
Cleveland Fed official says additional rate increases may be required to prevent inflation expectations from becoming entrenched
Fed's Hammack says higher rates may be necessary to prevent an inflationary mindset from becoming entrenched.
CNBC
- Single sourceabout 1 month ago
Inflation data this week could force Fed's hand on October rate decision
Fed officials signal reluctance to raise rates this month, with upcoming inflation data as a potential constraint on that stance.
MarketWatch
- Single sourceabout 1 month ago
Morgan Stanley strategist says bond market tightening may reduce need for rate increases
Bond market tightening is performing monetary policy functions, potentially supporting equity valuations, according to Morgan Stanley.
MarketWatch
- Single sourceabout 1 month ago
Major banks begin earnings reports amid elevated interest rate environment
Bank earnings season will reveal how elevated interest rates are impacting economic activity and financial conditions.
MarketWatch
- Single sourceabout 1 month ago
Senior Federal Reserve official expresses skepticism about near-term rate increase
Federal Reserve official signals rate increase unlikely this month, supporting risk assets and bond prices.
The New York Times
- Single sourceabout 1 month ago
Ultrashort bond funds provide attractive income with limited downside
Bond market segment offers attractive yields relative to risk, drawing investor interest.
MarketWatch
- Single sourceabout 1 month ago
Treasury yields climb as investors await 10-year note sale and Fed minutes
Treasury yields rise before 10-year auction and Federal Reserve minutes release.
CNBC
- Single sourceabout 1 month ago
Rising bond yields pressure dividend stocks relied upon by retirees
Rising bond yields pressure dividend stocks held by retirees, threatening retirement income streams.
CNBC
- Single sourceabout 1 month ago
Long-term Treasury bonds carry risks despite their safe reputation
MarketWatch examines whether 30-year Treasury bonds are appropriate for retirement savings.
MarketWatch
- Single sourceabout 1 month ago
Treasury yields hold steady ahead of Federal Reserve meeting notes
Treasury yields hold steady ahead of FOMC minutes release as investors await policy signals.
CNBC
- Single sourceabout 1 month ago
Bessent retreats from earlier 'house' comment as bond yields keep climbing
Treasury Secretary Bessent comments on continued bond yield rises despite his earlier statement, signaling market skepticism of policy messaging.
MarketWatch
- Single sourceabout 1 month ago
Treasury yields decline as investors reduce expectations for additional Fed increases
Treasury yields decline as investors reduce expectations for Federal Reserve rate increases.
CNBC
- Single sourceabout 1 month ago
Rising Treasury yields spark debt concerns but not imminent crisis
Treasury yields are rising but do not yet indicate imminent U.S. fiscal crisis, according to CNBC analysis.
CNBC
- Single sourceabout 1 month ago
Bessent acknowledges limits of Treasury influence amid market pressure
Treasury Secretary Bessent acknowledges bond market pressure after being criticized, signaling potential policy recalibration on fiscal or rate matters.
The New York Times
- Single sourceabout 1 month ago
Federal Reserve meeting minutes may offer insight into upcoming policy decisions
Federal Reserve meeting minutes due this week may signal future interest rate decisions.
MarketWatch
- Single sourceabout 1 month ago
Bond yields hit generational peaks as investors assess market risks
Treasury yields reach generational highs, prompting investors to prepare for potential market disruption.
MarketWatch
- Single sourceMARKET SHOCK ↑about 1 month ago
Disappointing employment figures raise odds Fed pauses rate hikes next month
Weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data increases market expectations the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady in October.
The New York Times
- Single sourceabout 1 month ago
Utilities sector may recover as bond volatility subsides, analyst suggests
A sector hit by bond sell-off volatility may be positioned for a rebound, according to market analyst commentary.
CNBC
- Reported by 2 outletsabout 1 month ago
Fixed-income returns climb to two-decade peak as geopolitical tensions persist
U.S. bond yields reached their highest level since 2002, signaling a significant shift in fixed-income markets.
The New York Times · MarketWatch
- Reported by 2 outletsabout 1 month ago
Retail traders flock to contrarian ETF as bond yields hit decade highs
Retail investors are concentrating positions in a contrarian ETF while global bond yields surge to concerning levels.
The New York Times · MarketWatch
- Single sourceabout 1 month ago
Ten-year Treasury yield climbs to two-decade peak as worldwide government debt selling intensifies
10-year Treasury yield reaches highest level since 2002 amid accelerating global bond selloff.
CNBC
- Single sourceabout 1 month ago
Bond selloff in September signals potential deterioration ahead
Bond markets suffered sharp losses in September, raising concerns about continued weakness in October.
MarketWatch
- Single sourceabout 1 month ago
Long-time Treasury skeptic turns positive on bonds at current yield levels
A strategist shifts bullish on Treasury bonds, citing 5.25% yields as attractive after years of bearish calls.
MarketWatch
- Single sourceabout 1 month ago
Long-dated Treasury yields decline from two-decade peak
U.S. 30-year Treasury yield retreats from its highest level since 2002, easing pressure on the bond market.
CNBC
- Single sourceabout 1 month ago
Hedge funds' expanding Treasury holdings spark stability concerns
Hedge funds hold record share of $30 trillion Treasury market, raising questions about systemic risk.
CNBC
- Single sourceabout 1 month ago
Analyst argues traders may be overestimating odds of dual Fed increases next month
MarketWatch analysis suggests market expectations for consecutive Fed rate hikes in October may be overblown.
MarketWatch
- Single sourceabout 1 month ago
Fixed income valuations draw investors back to diversification
Bond valuations have reached levels that may attract investors who previously avoided diversification into fixed income.
CNBC
- Single sourceabout 1 month ago
Rate increases strain two ETFs as traders bet on selective recovery
Rising interest rates are pressuring two ETFs; traders expect one to recover.
CNBC
- Single sourceabout 1 month ago
Bond yields fall as investors seek protection from inflation risks
Treasury yields decline amid ongoing inflation concerns, signaling demand for safer fixed-income assets.
CNBC
- Single sourceabout 1 month ago
Bond yields climb further, testing limits of technology sector gains
Bond yields rise sharply, raising questions about sustainability of elevated tech stock valuations.
MarketWatch
- Single sourceabout 2 months ago
Treasury yields climb as worldwide government debt comes under pressure
U.S. Treasury yields rise as global government bonds face selling pressure.
CNBC
- Single sourceabout 2 months ago
Savers weigh locking in 5.25% returns against waiting for potentially higher rates
The Guardian examines whether 5.25% fixed-rate savings accounts offer value for savers in the current environment.
The Guardian
- Reported by 2 outletsalmost 2 years ago
Long-term borrowing costs surge to two-decade peaks, sparking stability warnings
U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reaches nearly two-decade highs amid rapid rate rises, raising financial stability concerns.
CNBC · The Wall Street Journal